Summary of capacity performance
Poland experienced an increase in traffic from 627k flight in 2022, with 669k minutes of ATFM delay, to 697k flights in 2023 with 136k minutes of en-route ATFM delay. There was an additional 6k minutes of delay originating in Poland that were re-attributed to DFS via the NM post operations delay attribution process, according to the NMB agreement for eNM/S23 measures, to ameliorate capacity shortfalls in Karlsruhe UAC.
NSA’s assessment of capacity performance
Performance over 2023 was strongly impacted by the consequence of the military aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukraine, a war right behind Poland’s eastern border. The resulting closure of the Ukrainian airspace and further restrictions imposed on traffic flows on east-western axis (as a consequence of sanctions and reciprocal actions) led to significant changes to traffic flows in the Polish airspace (including drop in overflights and increase in traffic on the north-southern axis along Poland’s eastern border). Uncertainty regarding traffic evolution in FIR Warszawa was still visible in 2023. At the same time, a direct consequence of the war was significant increase in military activity (including NATO) in FIR Warszawa, which impacted airspace availability for civil traffic. All this had an impact on capacity and increased complexity.
PANSA has to maintain its operational abilities aimed at allowing it to effectively respond to traffic increase once the military conflict is over and traffic flows come back to their pre-war, shorter, routes. This necessitated continuation of actions aimed at increasing capacity in subsequent years.
The results in the CAPACITY KPA at the end of 2023 year for Poland (PANSA) was 0,20 minutes/flight with a target of 0,12 minutes/flight.
The aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has a significant impact on the air navigation services in Poland due to the introduction of a number of restrictions in FIR Warszawa. A direct consequence of this situation are significant delays in Polish airspace, especially the en route delays rate.
Monitoring process for capacity performance
Evolution of capacity situation and delays is performed every day based on own PANSA OPS data as well as NM data. Monthly monitoring is implemented based on EUROCONTROL (ANS performance) data. The results in the CAPACITY KPA at the end of 2023 year for Poland (PANSA) was 0,20 minutes/flight with a target of 0,12 minutes/flight. The significant increase of delays in Polish airspace, especially the en route delays rate is a direct consequence of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. This situation continues since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022.
Capacity planning
Capacity planning over 2023 focused on mid to long-term planning based on STATFOR forecasts, NM data, PANSA simulations as well as short term planning (up to 8 weeks) under the NOP rolling planning initiative coordinated by the Network Manager. Capacity planning, was challenging due to higher than pre-RP3 uncertainty regarding traffic levels as well as military activity resulting from the geopolitical developments.
Despite the war in Ukraine and challenges related thereto, PANSA continued implementing initiatives aimed at improving capacity in FIR Warszawa to meet challenges related to traffic increase after the crisis as well as potential changes in traffic flows. These included, among others, the following:
- continuation of new ATCOs training (continued training process for trainees employed before the pandemic outbreak and trainees from recruitment processes started in 2022 (new ATCO course in 2022), as well as new recruitment process for ATCO started in 2023),
- continued adaptation of the air traffic management system (Pegasus_21) to operational needs and modernisation of the ATM system as well as works – under international iTEC cooperation – on new ATM system to be implemented in the future,
- use of tools supporting ATCOs and flow management optimisation (including use of Traffic Complexity Tool and NMP Flow),
- continued investments in infrastructure (CNS) and technology allowing for optimisation of airspace structures and optimisation of coverage in the Polish airspace as well as supporting contingency,
- implementation of the first stage of airspace three-layer vertical split (south-eastern part of the Polish airspace – JR sectors – operationally deployed in April 2023) and preparation for implementation of subsequent stages in RP4,
- reorganisation of Kraków TMA – new sectors, new SID/STAR procedures (operationally deployed in 2023),
- continued harmonisation of GAT and OAT traffic leading to implementation of EUROAT,
- refreshment trainings for current ATCOs to maintain their competence,
- continuation of flexible rostering,
- evolving ACC sector configurations and management to cope with updated traffic forecasts,
- continued FMP dynamic management and ATFCM techniques including STAM,
- improvement of comprehensive airspace management.
PANSA also actively contributed to the implementation of Summer 2023 NM measures aimed at limiting delays in the mostly congested parts of the Network. Plans for 2024 include continuation of the above listed initiatives, among others:
- further works on reorganisation of ACC Warszawa sector configuration – three layer vertical division – further stages (planned to be operationally deployed in RP4),
- continuation of training process for new ATCOs (including new recruitments), with initiatives supporting increased efficiency of the recruitment and training processes,
- adaptation of the air traffic management system to operational needs and modernisation of the ATM System,
- continued investments in infrastructure (CNS) and technology allowing for optimisation of airspace structures and optimisation of coverage in the Polish airspace as well as supporting resilience, scalability and flexibility of service provision,
- development of CPDLC operational use (logon-list).
Application of Corrective Measures for Capacity (if applicable)
The following elements impacted the en-route delay indicator over 2023 that resulted in not meeting the target:
1. Military aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukraine,
2. Reorganisation of Kraków TMA.
On point 1 - the Russian aggression against Ukraine resulted in the introduction of restrictions in FIR Warszawa (specifically, along Poland’s eastern border), impacting availability of the airspace for civil traffic. Much wider military activities are visible, also linked to increased number of NATO flights in eastern part of the Polish airspace. Significant portion of this part of the airspace is reserved for military flights (performed H24) thus unavailable for civil traffic. The limited capacity (caused directly by the political circumstances), coupled with increased demand in sectors group J (due to limited possibilities of planning through sector R, caused by NPZ), has an impact on delays in the Polish airspace. Moreover, unpredictability of certain military operations (including NATO ad hoc operations) results in difficulties for strategic planning of traffic flows, requiring implementation of tactical measures. The impact on delays can be especially visible during the period of higher traffic levels (when the traffic demand exceeds the available capacity in the parts of FIR Warszawa which were impacted by the restrictions).
On point 2 – the airspace reorganisation was necessary following analysis of delays recorded in 2019 as well as due to significant increase in traffic in South-Eastern part of the Polish airspace (especially to/from EPRZ airport) following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The change in TMA boundaries, new sectorization and new SID/STAR procedures were aimed at improving the traffic flow management and increasing capacity of the Kraków TMA. However, during the implementation phase, temporary reduction of occupancy values had to be applied, what impacted the level of delays – this impact was especially visible over September-October 2023.
The ANSP, PANSA, has implemented two specific measures to remedy the capacity situation:
- Improved sectorisation within the ACC - New sector configurations have been implemented in JKZR priotion of airspace since June 2022; and the first stage of a three-layer vertical airspace split was implemented in April 2023.
- Traffic flow management - evaluations of traffic flows, carried out on regular basis, in order to modify flows and move from congested areas to volumes of airspace where spare capacity can be found - this is ongoing.
Additional Information Related to Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine
The war in Ukraine and related geopolitical situation is expected to impact capacity indicator for Poland also in 2024. Due to unpredictability of the situation (unpredictability related to further evolution of the conflict and of possible impact on Poland) as well as uncertainty regarding military activities in FIR Warszawa, it is difficult to assess the possible impact on 2024 capacity results.
The biggest impact on en-route capacity performance for Poland is linked with increased military activity and related limited capacity available to civil traffic. As indicated above, much wider military activities in the Polish airspace are visible, also linked to increased number of NATO flights in eastern part of the Polish airspace. Significant portion of this part of airspace is reserved for military flights (performed H24), thus unavailable for civil traffic. At the same time, following closure of Ukrainian airspace and very limited possible use of Belarusian airspace, additional traffic flows are observed on the north-southern axis along the eastern Poland’s border. The combination of limited airspace available and traffic demand leads to increase in delays. Moreover, unpredictability of certain military operations (including NATO ad hoc operations) results in difficulties for strategic planning of traffic flows, requiring implementation of tactical measures. The impact can be especially visible during the period of higher traffic levels (when the traffic demand exceeds the available capacity in the parts of FIR Warszawa which were impacted by the restrictions).
Following discussion with the Network Manager, since mid-March 2022 delays directly caused by the war in Ukraine have been marked as “O” (other) and thus also included in the data published by the Network Manager. Delays marked “O” are only related to the war in Ukraine and do not take into account other causes of delays. Certain delays marked “M” are also considered as related to the war in Ukraine. Over 2023, the delays coded “O” amounted to 2 635 minutes, while those coded “M” related to the war amounted to 569 minutes.
Mitigation measures implemented in regards to capacity include, as indicated in Annual Monitoring Report for 2022 and above:
- PANSA implemented RAD measures and EU Restrictions that were aimed to reduce ATFCM delays within EPWW FIR sectors with limited capacity due to additional military activity.
- PANSA also implemented solutions aimed at minimising this negative impact, especially in the south-eastern part of the Polish airspace: level change of military areas, RAD and PTR to change EPRZ traffic profiles, new sector configurations in JKZR part since 17.06.2022, coordination with LZBB to unblock PODAN and KEFIR border points (above FL315).
- Further improvements in the sectorisation in the south-eastern part of the Polish airspace were made through introduction of three-layer vertical split (first stage implemented in April 2023).
En route Capacity Incentive Scheme
Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA): The NSA reports that a penalty of 16,252,603 is due PLN.
In accordance with Article 3(3)(a) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1627: The incentive scheme shall cover only the calendar years 2022 to 2024.