Summary of capacity performance
Romania experienced an increase in traffic from 656k flights in 2022, with zero en route ATFM delay, to 769k flights in 2023 with 131k minutes of en route ATFM delay. In 2019, Romania had 747k flights with 85k minutes of en route ATFM delay. In 2023, all ATFM delays were attributed to adverse weather.
There was an additional 33k minutes of delay originating in Romania that were re-attributed to DFS via the NM post operations delay attribution process, according to the NMB agreement for eNM/S23 measures, to ameliorate capacity shortfalls in Karlsruhe UAC.
NSA’s assessment of capacity performance
The year 2023 continues to be deeply impacted, both economically and operationally, by the war in Ukraine. The Russian invasion and the subsequent restrictions and sanctions imposed have determined traffic flows that were already circumnavigating the conflict area following the events in 2014 to be pushed further to Romania’s south-western part. Furthermore, new traffic flows prefer to cross atypically the Romanian airspace in this geopolitical context. Average distance/flight has increased compared to 2019 and this is visible also in the service units evolution that has outpaced the IFR movements trend in comparison with 2019. These, combined with the increased military activity, including ad-hoc activity focused not only in the NE part of Romania, but in the entirety of the airspace, have generated an increase in complexity whilst also forcing operations into a narrower corridor to keep AUs away from conflict zones.
Despite the swift rebound of traffic in Romanian airspace, nearly reaching pre-pandemic levels with 97% of 2019 IFR movements and surpassing those levels with 104% in terms of service units, the complexity has increased due to re-routings and heightened military activity from the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, ROMATSA has managed to maintain zero (CRSTMP) delays attributable to ATC, with delays occurring only due to weather conditions.
Monitoring process for capacity performance
ROMATSA provided regularly inputs on capacity availability in the context of NOP Rolling Seasonal Plan implemented by the Network manager at European network level. The expected en-route performance was and is regularly evaluated by the NM for each ACC, including Bucuresti ACC, in terms of planned/maximum sector openings in relation with the estimated traffic demand.
The performance target has not been met solely due to weather related restrictions. From 121 301 ATFM delay minutes incurred in 2023, the total of 100% were generated due to weather reasons. The delay due to all other reasons, incl. ATC capacity and stafffing, were zero which confirms that there was no capacity gap in 2023.
Capacity planning
The capacity as previously planned and published within an annual NOP (Network Operatios Plan) has been adapted accordingly by adoption of capacity plans under a NOP Rolling Seasonal Plan format, including periods of 6 weeks, based on the expected traffic demand regularly provided by the Network Manager. These plans refer to:
- sector openings;
- maximum possible sector openings;
- availability of support of operational staff;
- special events and projects, etc.
Bucuresti ACC ensured a stable sector opening plan with no sector capacity reduction, with the possibility to increase the number of sectors when traffic increased.
Application of Corrective Measures for Capacity (if applicable)
The performance target has not been met solely due to weather related restrictions. From 121 301 ATFM delay minutes incurred in 2023, the total of 100% were generated due to weather reasons. The delay due to all other reasons, incl. ATC capacity and stafffing, were zero which confirms that there was no capacity gap in 2023.
Significant Risks Likely to Affect Capacity Performance in Reference Period
Traffic values have increased in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and due to the re-routings caused by the war in Ukraine and the restrictions imposed. Traffic flows that were already circumnavigating the conflict area following the events in 2014 have been pushed further to Romania’s south-western part. Furthermore, new traffic flows prefer to cross atypically the Romanian airspace in this geopolitical context. Average distance/flight has increased compared to 2019 and this is visible also in the service units evolution. From April 2023, the number of daily IFR movements in Romanian airspace has surpassed 2019 levels. These, combined with the increased military activity have generated an increase in complexity.
Another risk is generated by ROMATSA’s ageing ATCO personnel, especially in ACC Bucharest, where more than 1/3 of ATCOs are over 50 years old and will be over age 55 at the end of RP3. It takes between 3 to 5 years to fully train and authorize an ATCO for ACC, therefore a recruitment process was started in 2017 to guarantee proper staffing levels to ensure safety and capacity.
Additional Information Related to Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine
Traffic flows that were already circumnavigating the conflict area following the events in 2014 have been pushed further to Romania’s south-western part (Examples of traffic flows: Russian Federation – Turkey, Turkey - Sweden, Poland - Israel, Lithuania - Turkey, Romania - Poland, Turkey - Finland, Russian Federation - Egypt, Poland - Qatar, United Kingdom - Romania, Turkey - Norway).
Furthermore, new traffic flows prefer to cross atypically the Romanian airspace in this geopolitical context (Examples of the most affected flows : Russia-Turkey, United Kingdom – India, Republic of Korea – Germany, Australia - United Kingdom, Kazakhstan – Hungary, Qatar – Sweden, Pakistan - United Kingdom). These, combined with the increased military activity, scheduled or ad-hoc, focused not only in the NE part of Romania, but in the entirety of the airspace, have generated an increase in complexity.
In 2023, ROMATSA managed to mantain a high-level of performance for en route capacity, despite a challenging summer season, with traffic values above the 2019 level, the reduction of available airspace due to military activity and significant weather disruptions.
Through application of FUA principles, civil-military coordination helped mitigate any possible impacts on en-route capacity performance.
En route Capacity Incentive Scheme
The incentive scheme is under review by the European Commission.