Summary of capacity performance
Hungary experienced an increase in traffic from 897k flights in 2022 to 1034k flights in 2023; during the same period en route ATFM delays increased from 481k minutes to 832k minutes. For reference in 2019, HungaroControl handled 892k flights with 1.4 million minutes of en route ATFM delay. There was an additional 187k minutes of ATFM delay originating in the Budapest ACC that were re-attributed to the DFS via the NM post operations delay attribution process, according to the NMB agreement for eNM/S23 measures, to ameliorate the capacity shortfall in Karlsruhe UAC.
NSA’s assessment of capacity performance
The Ukrainian war has had a significant impact, in both operational and economic context of the service provision of ANS in Hungary. Operational: due to the closure of the Ukrainian airspace and the war-related sanctions, there have been reroutings in the Hungarian airspace, having a net positive and ever growing impact on the number of overflights. Traffic to and from Russia and Ukraine is missing, on the other hand, reroutings to and from North Europe, and the Far East (and other parts of Asia), as well as new routes between Russia and non-EU states have brought a significatnt amount of additional traffic. The size of this impact has further increased in 2023, as the traffic between Europe and Asia (mainly China) started to gain momentum. The Hungarian ANSP experienced a very strong recovery (with overflights passing the 2019-level by +17% on avg in 2023), and this was only in part a consequence of the reroutings, there was also a very strong increase of the organic traffic on the South-East axis. Especially in the summer, when leisure traffic from Western Europe to Greece and Türkiye created an unexpected high demand on our flow. In addition to the already high demand, ANS provision was impacted by the war in one more way: there were military airspaces to decrease capacity and to increase complexity in the Hungarian airspace.
The war has caused a significant increase in traffic in Budapest ACC, resulting in traffic reaching +17% on avg vs2019 levels in 2023. Budapest ACC was able to manage the unexpected traffic growth but with significant delays. Although, Hungary was one of the delay hotspots in 2023, it should be noted that air traffic on the Eastern border of the Network was operated without any particular problems. Our view is that a very significant part of the excess delay BUDAPEST ACC struggeled with in 2023 was due to the war. We flagged this issue to the PRB and EC and also to the Network Management Board in 2023, before the Annual Monitoring Report of 2022. We understand that in 317/2019 the definition of “exceptional event” does not by word apply to our situation, we still belive that by the legislative intent a regular war in the neighbouring country, causing significant disruptions does qualify as an “exceptional event”. With that said, throughout 2023 we reported our delay minutes associated with the war (based on some method agreed with the NM) under the “O” other delay category. We hope that in the 2023 Annual Monitoring Report a certain distinction would be made based on this categorization.
The continuous war in the neighbouring country has caused a significant increase in traffic in Budapest ACC, resulting in traffic well above the pre-COVID 2019 levels (+17%). Budapest ACC was able to manage the extreme traffic growth with 30% fewer delays than in 2019, which was not enough to meet the target, but allowed air traffic on the Eastern border of the Network to operate without any particular problems.
Monitoring process for capacity performance
NSA has monitored the roster planning for the summer season and also the evaluation of ATCO utilisation during the daily shift rostering.
Delay trend was also monitored but no need for intervention was identified.
Capacity planning
The capacity planning for 2023 with NM was completed in January and it was already anticipated that capacity problems can occur during the summer. The main reason for the capacity problem was that there were not enough ACC ATCOs available. The working schedule for the summer period has been designed to allow 7 sectors to open during the busiest periods of the day. In addition, all office staff with valid ACC licences have been assigned to work as much as possible in the ACC sectors in Budapest.
As there are no indications that the war in Ukraine will end in the near future and the demand for overflight traffic in the Budapest ACC remains very high, further adjustments are needed in terms of sector capacity and in the availability (rostering) of ATCOs. Despite the fact that the first wave of newly recruited ATCO students will complete their training in autumn 2024, the NSA proposes to launch additional ACC training courses with a large number of new recruits, considering the expected retirement rate and the recommencement of the Hungarian ATCOs employment abroad. The NSA is aware of the unfortunate trend of ATCOs leaving HungaroControl for other ANSPs in Europe.
Application of Corrective Measures for Capacity (if applicable)
In 2023, ATCO training was ramped up (number of trainees was increased to maximum training capacity) to react to the explosion of traffic demand. However, the first ATCOs from this course will start work only in 2025. Therefore in the short run (i.e. through 2023-2024) capacity problems will deteriorate. Even the increased number of trainees will not be enough to serve this traffic we are currently serving. HungaroControl has started to explore further options to provide the necessary number of ATCOs, as the originally planned number of ATCOs is not (and will not be) enough to manage the traffic without disruptions (regulations, delays and re-routings of the re-routings).
Three main measures have been enacted to improve capacity performance:
1. Increase in sector capacity values - ACC en-route sector capacity values were reviewed and modified - ongoing and due by Q2/2024;
2. Fine tuning of ATCO roster - with fine-tuning of ATCO rostering, more ATCOs will be available for peaks - ongoing and due by Q2/2024;
3. Implementation (test operations) of Complexity tool - with the implementation of Complexity tool, more balanced workload is expected in the ACC sectors - ongoing and due by Q2/2024.
In response to measures introduced in previous calendar years the NSA also monitors the implementation of the training plan as part of the annual monitoring process.
Additional Information Related to Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine
The Ukraine war has continued a significant impact in traffic in Budapest ACC, resulting in traffic well above pre-COVID 2019 levels already in 2022. Our view is that had the war not broken out, Budapest ACC would have been able to handle the 2023 traffic within its capacity target. We believe that a very significant part of the excess delay was due to the war. Due to the significant increase in traffic caused by the war, we made an adjustments to the capacity of HIGH/TOP sectors, and also made some fine tuning of ATCO rostering. In addition to that a Complexity tool will be implemented during Q2 2024.
En route Capacity Incentive Scheme
HungaroControl: According to incentive scheme defined in monitoring report a penalty of 196;195;160 HUF is due.
In accordance with Article 3(3)(a) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1627: The incentive scheme shall cover only the calendar years 2022 to 2024.