Summary of capacity performance
Poland experienced an increase in traffic from 697k flights in 2023 with 136k minutes of en-route ATFM delay to 758k flights in 2024 with 172k minutes of en route ATFM delay.
There were an additional 3k minutes of delay originating in Poland that were re-attributed to DFS via the NM post operations delay attribution process, according to the NMB agreement for eNM/S24 measures, to ameliorate capacity shortfalls in Karlsruhe UAC.
NSA’s assessment of capacity performance
Similarly as in 2023, performance over 2024 was strongly impacted by the consequence of the military aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukraine, a war right behind Poland’s eastern border. The resulting closure of the Ukrainian airspace and further restrictions imposed on traffic flows on east-western axis (as a consequence of sanctions and reciprocal actions) led to significant changes to traffic flows in the Polish airspace (including drop in overflights and new traffic flows on the north-southern axis along Poland’s eastern border circumnavigating the closed airspace of Ukraine). At the same time a direct consequence of the war was significant increase in military activity (including NATO) in FIR Warszawa, still visible in 2024, what impacted airspace availability for civil traffic. All this had an impact on capacity and increased complexity. The environmental performance (HFE/KEA) was also determined by the geopolitical situation and closed airspace beyond Poland’s eastern border.
The target set in the KPA of en route Capacity was not met in 2024. En-route ATFM delay per flight indicator achieved value was 0,23 minutes/flight with the target – 0,12 minutes/flight, set in the PP.
As the incentive scheme is obligatory in the KPA of Capacity, taking into account the actual performance achieved in this area, maximum penalty will be imposed on PANSA in en-route.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine strongly affects Polish airspace in terms of its availability, together with adverse weather conditions. Both factors are described in more details in the following parts of the Monitoring Report. However, ATC Staffing and Capacity, responsible for more than half of the en-route delays must also be addressed.
Monitoring process for capacity performance
At PANSA, the evaluation of the capacity situation and delays is performed on daily basis using its own OPS data as well as NM data. Monthly monitoring is implemented based on EUROCONTROL (ANS performance) data. The results in the CAPACITY KPA at the end of 2024 year for Poland (PANSA) was 0,23 minutes/flight with a target of 0,12 minutes/flight.
The 2024 results were significantly impacted by the war in Ukraine and its consequences (21% of all 2024 en-route are attributed to the war – coded as “O”) and by meteorological conditions (weather-related delays account for 20% of 2024 delays). However, ATC Capacity (32% of all 2024 en-route delays) and ATC Staffing (24% of all 2024 en-route delays) also play and essential role in the delay. The NSA monitored ATCO numbers and training in 2024 in a regular manner.
Capacity planning
Capacity planning over 2024 focused on mid to long-term planning based on STATFOR forecasts, NM data, PANSA simulations as well as short term planning (up to 8 weeks) under the NOP rolling planning initiative coordinated by the Network Manager. Capacity planning remained challenging due to higher than pre-RP3 uncertainty regarding traffic levels as well as military activity resulting from the geopolitical developments.
Despite the war in Ukraine and challenges related thereto, PANSA continued the implementation of initiatives aimed at improving capacity in FIR Warszawa in order to meet challenges related to traffic increase after the crisis as well as potential changes in traffic flows.
These included, among others, the following:
- continuation of new ATCOs training (continued training process for trainees employed before 2024, as well as new recruitment process for ATCO started in 2024 – in total (all ATCO units, ACC, APP and TWR) 88 candidates started the training process in 2024; a number of measures were implemented in the recruitment area (continuous recruitment, modified forms, internal organisational changes to optimise processes) and training area (simulator development, digitalisation of documents, improvements in trainers selection process) to support increased efficiency of the processes;
- continued adaptation of the air traffic management system (Pegasus_21) to operational needs and modernisation of the ATM system as well as works – under international iTEC cooperation – on new ATM system to be implemented in the future;
- use of tools supporting ATCOs and flow management optimisation (including use of Traffic Complexity Tool and NMP Flow as well as Arrival Manager for EPWA airport);
- continued investments in infrastructure (CNS) and technology allowing for optimisation of airspace structures and optimisation of coverage in the Polish airspace as well as supporting contingency;
- preparations for implementation of subsequent stages of airspace three-layer vertical split (planned implementation in Q3 2025);
- sector capacity analysis based on new CAPAN (Capacity Analysis) studies, including both the verification of the capacity of existing sectors as well as those newly established as a result of the implementation of vertical split within the EPWW FIR (CAPAN planned in May 2025);
- preparation for Dynamic RAD implementation (implemented in February 2025);
- works on implementation of Radar Control in EPRZ TMA (implemented in January 2025);
- continued harmonisation of GAT and OAT traffic leading to implementation of EUROAT;
- refreshment trainings for current ATCOs to maintain their competence;
- continuation of flexible rostering;
- evolving ACC sector configurations and management to cope with updated traffic forecasts;
- continued FMP dynamic management and ATFCM techniques including STAM;
- post-ops analyses taking into account traffic levels, delays, sector configurations;
- traffic analyses under hypothetical scenarios assuming unblocking of Ukrainian and Belarussian airspace;
- improvement of comprehensive airspace management.
PANSA also actively contributed to the implementation of Summer 2024 NM/ANSPs measures aimed at limiting delays in the mostly congested parts of the Network (aimed to reduce network ATFM delays by removing traffic from congested areas). Following this contribution, 3.4k minutes of delays were reattributed from PANSA to another ANSP.
Further improvements are planned for RP4 as listed in the RP4 PP for Poland.
Application of Corrective Measures for Capacity (if applicable)
2024 results were significantly impacted by:
1. ATC Capacity - actual demand exceeded capacity available based on traffic predictions or capacity available in TMAs (especially for Warsaw TMA), which caused 32% of all en-route delays in FIR Warszawa in 2024. Due to Poland’s location on the map the capacity planning was challenging.
2. ATC Staffing issues, which caused 24% of all en-route delays in 2024 and were clearly visible especially over May-June period. ATCO recruitment and trainig processes have been significantly modernised in 2024, however, as the training process in a long one, it will take same time till the results are clearly visible. Moreover, during the entire RP3 more ATCOs than planned, have stopped working in the OPS room.
3. Military aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukraine – this element was not factored in when the RP3 targets (based on reference values developed by the PRB/NM) were developed. The Russian aggression against Ukraine resulted in significant changes to traffic flows in FIR Warszawa, leading to increase of traffic in south-eastern sectors. Increased traffic levels are visible in certain periods of time due to flights circumnavigating around closed Ukrainian airspace (on the south-north axis). At the same time the war led to the introduction of restrictions in FIR Warszawa (specifically, along Poland’s eastern border), impacting availability of the airspace for civil traffic. Much wider military activities are visible, also linked to increased number of NATO flights in eastern part of the Polish airspace. Significant portion of this part of the airspace is reserved for military flights (performed H24) thus unavailable for civil traffic. The limited capacity (caused directly by the political circumstances), coupled with increased demand in sectors group J (due to the traffic flows circumnavigation around Ukrainian airspace and limited possibilities of planning through sector R, caused by NPZ), has an impact on delays in the Polish airspace. Moreover, unpredictability of certain military operations (including NATO ad hoc operations) results in difficulties for strategic planning of traffic flows, requiring implementation of tactical measures. The impact on delays can be especially visible during the period of higher traffic levels (when the traffic demand exceeds the available capacity in the parts of FIR Warszawa which were impacted by the restrictions). Over 2024 the delays related to the war (code O) generated delay at 0.05 minute per flight (21% of all en-route delays generated in FIR Warszawa in 2024). Without them the result would be more advantageous (0,18 minute/flight), but still the target would not be met.
4. Weather conditions – these are becoming more severe, what has not been sufficiently factored in in the RP3 targets. Over 2024 the delays related to weather (code W) amounted to 0.05 minute per light (20% of all en-route delays generated in FIR Warszawa in 2024).
Recommendations for improvements: Weather cincumstances as well as the effects of the war going on in Ukraine just beyond the Polish border are in most part out of ANSPs control. For those reasons it is difficult to suggest any further recommendations. What is recommended is to improve traffic flow management as well as to continue with the recruitment and training processes, as new ATCOs are needed, whilst their start of operational work requires time. At the same time discontinuation of operational work by a particular number of people must also be taken into account. Analysis of available ATCOs should be continued.
Remedial measures
3 measures were already implemented:
- Improved sectorisation of ACC - implemented first stage of 3 layer vertical split; subsequent stage ongoing;
- Traffic flow management and development of sectorisation - regular evaluations of traffic flows to move from congested areas to volumes of airspace where spare capacity can be found. Flexible use of ATFM regulations including implementation of dynamic RAD, occupancy trial testing. Planned increase in maximum number of sectors open, as well as flexible use of available sectors.
- Training of new ATCOs - new ATCOs training aimed at increasing the number of ATCOs for ACC and APP, in line with plan included for RP4 performance plan - ongoing with new courses planned for 2025+.
Additional remedial measures being implemented include:
- Coorperation with NM and other stakeholders to develop scenarios to prepare for possible reopening of airspace beyond Poland’s eastern border.
- Consultation with Airspace Management Committee to assess changes to existing airspace structure for example the establishment of new Prohibited or Restricted areas.
However, the national monitoring report highlights that several issues will continue:
As indicated in Annex Q to the RP4 PP, it should be noticed that due to the unstable geopolitical situation beyond Poland’s eastern border, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, en-route delays generated on the “O” code may appear during the RP4 period. Their share in the total number of en-route delays, or the number of delays dedicated exclusively to non-ATC, is difficult to predict due to the inability to assess the intensity of military activity, especially in exceptional situations in terms of traffic volume, operational support capabilities and declared airspace capacity in a given period. It is also impossible to predict how the ongoing warfare and its monitoring will affect subsequent, possible changes in traffic flows in FIR EPWW, which may further complicate traffic management at the ACC level and negatively affect the level of en-route delays.
The possible increase in delays caused by weather factors (code “W”) should also be borne in mind. Attention to this tendency was also paid at the level of the entire network in the PRB report on the proposed EU-wide targets for the RP4 period (see chapter 6 of the report “Performance Review Body Advice on the Union-wide targets for RP4” from March 2024 – including statements such as: “Considering the increasing unpredictability of weather phenomena and their impact on capacity performance […]”, “The PRB understands that uncertainty around weather is increasing, as the occurrence and severity of weather phenomena affecting aviation in general”).
Moreover, the RP4 delay results may be further impacted if the airspace beyond Poland’s eastern border is reopened – both in the case of Ukraine (if the war is over) and in case of Belarus and Russia (if respective sanctions are lifted). This may lead to traffic flows changes and significant traffic increase in FIR Warszawa, having possible impact on delays (especially as the impact of such airspace reopening on traffic volumes and flows is for the time being not predictable).
En route Capacity Incentive Scheme
Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA): According to incentive scheme defined in monitoring report a penalty of PLN 16 942 314.53 is due.
In accordance with Article 3(3)(a) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1627: The incentive scheme shall cover only the calendar years 2022 to 2024.