Summary of capacity performance
Croatia experienced an increase in traffic, from 814k flights in 2023, to 922k flights in 2024. In 2024, Croatia had 1 390k minutes of delay, significantly higher than in 2023 (347k minutes of delay). There were an additional 70k minutes of delay originating in Croatia that were re-attributed to DFS via the NM post operations delay attribution process, according to the NMB agreement for eNM/S24 measures, to ameliorate capacity shortfalls in Karlsruhe UAC.
NSA’s assessment of capacity performance
In the year 2024 there were significant challenges for LDZO ACC capacity KPI as the actual traffic was around 33% higher than planned in the RP3 Performance plan while summer season traffic was 10% above historical highest year (2023). As a consequence, limitations occurred during summer season due to unplanned high increase of traffic demand in peak hours. The capacity performance target was not achieved due to a combination of interrelated factors:
Traffic Forecast Deviation: The initial traffic forecast for 2024 projected approximately 696,000 flights; however, actual traffic through Croatian airspace reached 919,500 flights. This figure exceeded even the revised forecast made in February 2024, significantly increasing demand on air traffic management resources.
Low Flight Plan Adherence: Flight plan adherence by airspace users remained below 40% in Croatian airspace. This low level of predictability severely constrained effective capacity planning and hindered the ANSP’s ability to manage resources and sector configurations efficiently.
National Social Policy Impact: The introduction of new demographic measures at the state level granted new parents two months of leave to spend with their families. The uptake of this leave was particularly high during peak traffic months, leading to reduced staffing availability at critical times.
These combined circumstances contributed to the shortfall in meeting the established capacity target, despite mitigation efforts undertaken by the ANSP.
Monitoring process for capacity performance
The Single European Sky Data Portal is the primary information source and is used to monitor all available KPIs and PIs.
The LDZO ACC capacity KPI faced major difficulties in 2024 since summer traffic was significantly higher than in previous years and actual traffic exceeded the RP3 Performance plan’s projections by far.
As a result, during the summer, there were restrictions due to an unforeseen surge in traffic demand during peak hours.
Capacity planning
Capacity planning is done using the Network Cooperative Decision-Making processes through the specialized organizations CAPLAN, NETOPS, and NDOP. Capacity planning is carried out in accordance with NM’s initiative to create a rolling NOP document that describes short-term capacity and demand at the network level.
Capacity is adjusted to traffic demand and reported to NM, which evaluates the efficiency for the planned period. The expected traffic outlook is provided for the next eight weeks and is updated every week.During the local planning process, a number of departments contribute to the strategic and tactical development of the plan.
Application of Corrective Measures for Capacity (if applicable)
Recommendations to the ANSP to rectify the situation:
Enhance Traffic Forecasting and Scenario Planning
Strengthen collaboration with the Network Manager and neighbouring ANSPs to improve short- and medium-term traffic forecasting and develop alternative planning for high-traffic scenarios, taking into account possible forecast deviations.
Engage with Airspace Users on Flight Plan Adherence
Initiate targeted dialogues with airspace users, supported by data, to encourage improved flight plan adherence and raise awareness of its operational impact. Consider coordinating with the Network Manager to escalate this issue at network level.
Measures that have been put in place include:
- Network Weather Mitigation Measures - implementation of new scenarios enabling improved weather and sector management;
- Conitnued effort to increase staffing levels and/or availability - Training Organisation is working at full capacity ensuring maximum student inflow;
- Continued alignment of traffic demand and sector opening times - Implementation of improved sector rostering and sector configuration options;
- Re-evluation of ATC sector capacities - Definition and implementation of improved sector capacities/ monitoring values based on the operational and technological developments;
- Central/South East Europe airspace restructuring - Improved sector volumes (i.e. sector boundaries) and merge of FRAs.
En route Capacity Incentive Scheme
Croatia Control: The NSA reports that, Croatia Control is liable for a financial penalty of €997 452.69
In accordance with Article 3(3)(a) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1627: The incentive scheme shall cover only the calendar years 2022 to 2024.